Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 18.541978 21.475608 24.989485 29.590473 35.585473 43.329178 54.444482
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 14.993262 18.385539 22.839242 29.352244 39.095697 54.042074 80.996927
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 13.214677 16.822365 21.861286 29.836766 43.108329 66.661848 119.701021
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 11.604260 15.130562 20.258959 28.825082 44.212892 74.793467 158.518741
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 10.596953 14.114849 19.421195 28.740825 46.778639 87.117567 226.341784
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 9.530595 12.864798 18.011525 27.350052 46.355041 92.596581 285.100318
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 8.565598 11.664110 16.520851 25.528974 44.509364 93.589171 330.879482
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 7.821536 10.736331 15.369657 24.140372 43.237943 95.656786 393.306585
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 8.022910 11.304605 16.769422 27.857676 54.995638 148.829096 1365.272557
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 7.854644 11.252070 17.081090 29.467125 62.385947 199.177695 5869.670402
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 7.303101 10.513078 16.069558 28.042519 60.693143 205.005810 11795.207244
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 7.073591 10.300448 16.005011 28.717462 65.661774 257.827140 NaN
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 6.695025 9.824432 15.435756 28.231918 67.131104 296.483729 NaN
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 6.391763 9.458261 15.042896 28.108642 69.924456 357.984647 NaN
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 6.177488 9.230926 14.894285 28.556224 75.151753 472.866698 NaN
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 5.847701 8.773823 14.242799 27.608684 74.478386 517.821318 NaN
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 5.628163 8.501675 13.941275 27.529664 77.510665 650.645380 NaN
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 5.316547 8.043727 13.221874 26.224665 74.607636 657.871960 NaN
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 4.989616 7.543329 12.385100 24.512785 69.388722 597.387244 NaN
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 4.718499 7.134858 11.717919 23.205002 65.771525 569.723183 NaN
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 4.872030 7.516142 12.726925 26.701217 87.304695 1798.836886 NaN
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 4.844104 7.554628 13.009703 28.210375 100.772058 4983.319798 NaN
2025-05-04 00:00:00+00:00 4.616270 7.198890 12.395962 26.874678 95.952847 4715.158064 NaN